As Russia refocuses its invasion of Ukraine eastward, there is growing recognition in Kyiv and Allied capitals that the window to prevent the partition of the nation and a long war of attrition may be narrow.

The recent withdrawal of Russian troops from the vicinity of kyiv represents a defeat, after the Ukrainian army blocked its advance with a combination of urban warfare and attacks on supply lines.

Yet to roll back, or even contain, a searing advance of reinforced Russian units in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk would be like fighting to open battlefields, requiring more than the anti-tank and light anti-aircraft missiles available to the states. United and Europe. provided so far.

“Aircraft, coast-to-ship missiles, armored personnel vehicles, heavy air defense systems,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said before meeting his North Atlantic Treaty Organization counterparts in Brussels on Thursday. , when asked what he was asking for.

Speaking after the meeting, he predicted that the coming battle for the East would be reminiscent of World War II, involving large-scale operations and thousands of tanks and artillery pieces.

“Either you help us now – and I’m talking about days, not weeks – or your help will come too late and many people will die,” Kuleba said. He had no doubts that Ukraine would receive the weapons it needed, he said, but “the question is the timing”.

Six weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of neighboring Ukraine, the war is entering a new phase, which could give Ukraine just weeks to procure and deploy these weapons.

That’s how long it will likely take Russia to replenish units for a major assault in the east, adding the areas of the Donbass region that remain in Ukrainian hands to a swath of territory that she already owns. Once that goal is achieved, Russian forces could dig into a long and destabilizing war to force an eventual settlement, exacting a heavy toll on Ukraine, as well as high costs for the European economy and for Russia itself.

“The Allies need to do more and are ready to do more to provide more equipment, and they realize and recognize the urgency,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after Thursday’s meeting. “This war can last weeks, but also months and maybe also years.”

Whether the war in Ukraine can end quickly or turn into a years-long conflict like in Syria – ongoing since 2011 – is now seen as central, according to a Western official familiar with NATO discussions . allies.

The revelation of alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in reclaimed towns has given new impetus to US, UK and European sanctions against Russia. The EU agreed on Thursday to ban imports of Russian coal, and talks of possible embargoes on oil and natural gas are expected to follow.

The sanctions have had no discernible impact on Putin’s invasion plans to date, so the focus is increasingly on weapons that can balance the balance on the ground in what the British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey described in a statement on Thursday as “this next phase of the conflict”. “

Heappey had just hosted a group of senior Ukrainian officers, led by Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov, for demonstrations of “a range of equipment and options for additional military support, including systems defensive missiles and protected mobility vehicles,” the statement said.

NATO has refused to send troops to Ukraine or provide it with planes, citing the risk of sparking a wider conflict with Russia. Nor will it impose a no-fly zone as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly demanded.

The initial reluctance of NATO allies to send larger offensive weapons for the same reasons is fading, albeit too slowly from Ukraine’s perspective. Kuleba chose Germany, welcoming Berlin’s seismic change to supply weapons, but criticizing its slowness. “While Berlin has time, Kyiv doesn’t,” he said.

Germany had offered Ukraine 100 Marder tanks, but that deal now appears to be in question as they have stood in the rain for so long they would need months of repair, according to a German official.

At a meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers on Thursday, the UK argued it was time to give Ukraine the level of equipment it demanded, while the US said they were ready to help him get longer-range tanks and anti-aircraft systems, according to a person familiar with the talks. More broadly, the G-7 agreed on the importance of backfilling to replace equipment countries send to Ukraine, the person said.

The UK has already announced that it is adding its Starstreak anti-aircraft system to the 3,615 light anti-tank weapons, known as NLAWs, it has sent to kyiv. The Times of London reported this week that the UK is also deciding between two models of armored patrol vehicles – the Mastiff and the Jackal – to offer.

Australia said it would deliver 20 of its Bushmaster armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, after Zelenskiy specifically requested them. On Friday, he pledged an additional $20 million for anti-armour weapons and ammunition.

Also on Friday, Slovakia said it had sent an S-300 long-range anti-aircraft battery, a Soviet-era equivalent to the US Patriot missile system.

The Czech Republic’s public broadcaster this week aired footage of five T-72 tanks and five armored personnel carriers being loaded onto a train, claiming it was a delivery to Ukraine agreed with NATO allies. NATO. Defense Minister Jana Černochová confirmed in a tweet that the Czechs were making deliveries, but said she would not help Russia by identifying them.

Washington is also sending armed Switchblade drones to Ukraine, along with new supplies of Javelin anti-tank missiles for use on the eastern front once the planned Russian assault begins, according to US officials.

The quantities of heavy weapons are currently low and some equipment requires months of training to operate. It is unclear whether enough troops can be deployed to the Donbass front in time to meet the expected Russian onslaught. A high-intensity conflict quickly runs through ammunition and equipment, and Ukrainian forces will face their own logistical challenges as Russia targets fuel and ammunition depots in long-range missile strikes.

Much will also depend on Russia’s ability to replenish and concentrate forces that have suffered blows in the North.

To succeed, Ukraine will need not only tanks, but also good intelligence, more advanced small arms that it has used for this purpose and vast territorial forces to prevent encirclement from the rear. of its frontline forces, Mark Hertling, a former US Army Europe commander, said in a Twitter thread.

“Donbass will be a battle of attrition,” he said.

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Bloomberg’s Arne Delfs and Alberto Nardelli contributed to this report.